THE CASE REPORT – USE OF MUVZ™ IN CHRONIC LOW BACK PAIN

Abstract

The livestock auction market in Brazil is one of the main forms of animal trading, being present in several markets where auction companies provide various information, including negotiated prices. However, there is still a gap in relation to which factors impact the formation of prices in auction markets. Therefore, this article seeks to study the formation of prices for calves traded at auctions in the municipality of Lavras do Sul RS, with the aim of collaborating with producers and auction companies, through the results of the research, who may benefit by applying the best commercial strategies for their realities. First, the study tested the multiple linear regression model to verify which variables were correlated and their impacts on the final prices of the calves traded. The independent variables were based on a literature review and on the availability of data from the partner company. The model demonstrated that the price per kilogram of fattened cattle and the number of animals in the lot had positive impacts on the price of animals traded at auctions; the interest rate and the average weight of the lot showed negative impacts. The second model applied was ARIMA (1,1,0), which identified that 82% of the formation of the current price is due to the past price itself. In addition, the mixed model was tested, that is, it used the residues of the ARIMA (1,1,0) model to be the dependent variable of the multiple linear regression model and inserting as independent variables the same variables already tested. The objective of the mixed model was to verify whether what was not being explained by the past price itself could be explained by the independent variables. In the latter, the result was not significant for any variable at the 5% level, that is, in principle all these independent variables are already being considered in the formation of the current price. From this, the research sought to verify the hypothesis of market efficiency in the commercialization of calves at auctions. Then, it was analyzed what the gains were by incorporating the memory of the ARIMA (1,1,0) model in relation to a Randon Walk. The ARIMA (1,1,0) model did not show significant gains, indicating that, for the auction market in the study, the hypothesis of market efficiency for the formation of prices for commercialized calves cannot be rejected.